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Subject: =?UTF-8?q?What_Lilly=E2=80=99s_Earnings_Call_Just_Revealed_About_the_Futu?=
 =?UTF-8?q?re_of_Obesity_Treatment?=
From: Dave Knapp from On The Pen <onthepen@substack.com>
To: tjphuhs@gmail.com
Message-Id: <20260430170823.3.a74870ff2ba7a208@mg2.substack.com>
Date: Thu, 30 Apr 2026 17:08:23 +0000
Feedback-Id: post-196018527:cat-post:pub-4808993:substack
Sender: Dave Knapp from On The Pen <onthepen@substack.com>
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Reply-To: Dave Knapp from On The Pen
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View this post on the web at https://onthepen.substack.com/p/what-lillys-ea=
rnings-call-just-revealed

There was a moment in this call for me where all of the incredibly impressi=
ve numbers stopped meaning much to me, and the structure underneath them st=
arted to matter a lot more.=20
Lilly reported $12.8 billion in combined revenue for Mounjaro and Zepbound,=
 with prescriptions in the obesity market up more than 80%. What the slides=
 add is just how dominant that position has become. Lilly now holds about 6=
0% share of the U.S. incretin market, with the overall market itself still =
growing at roughly 30%. That means they are not just participating in growt=
h. They are capturing most of it, despite the stellar launch of Novo=E2=80=
=99s Wegovy Pill...

Unsubscribe https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9vbnRoZXBlbi5=
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iM0lKbjVkbXNVRlFLQVUiLCJwIjoxOTYwMTg1MjcsInMiOjQ4MDg5OTMsImYiOnRydWUsInUiOj=
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age-offset-margin: -120px;"><img src=3D"https://eotrx.substackcdn.com/o/bd6=
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g-top:0 !important;padding-bottom:0 !important;padding-right:0 !important;p=
adding-left:0 !important;"/><div class=3D"preview" style=3D"display:none;fo=
nt-size:1px;color:#333333;line-height:1px;max-height:0px;max-width:0px;opac=
ity:0;overflow:hidden;">The System Isn&#8217;t Expanding Obesity Treatment.=
 Patient demand is.</div><div class=3D"preview" style=3D"display:none;font-=
size:1px;color:#333333;line-height:1px;max-height:0px;max-width:0px;opacity=
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v><table class=3D"email-body-container" role=3D"presentation" width=3D"100%=
" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tbody><tr><td></td><td =
class=3D"content" width=3D"550"></td><td></td></tr><tr><td></td><td class=
=3D"content" width=3D"550" align=3D"left"><div style=3D"font-size: 16px;lin=
e-height: 26px;max-width: 550px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;overflow-wrap: b=
reak-word;"><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellsp=
acing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tbody><tr><td align=3D"right" style=3D"heigh=
t:20px;"><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspaci=
ng=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"vertical-align:middle;">=
<span class=3D"pencraft pc-reset reset-IxiVJZ tw-font-body tw-text-ssm tw-t=
ext-substack-secondary" style=3D"font-family: SF Pro Text, -apple-system, s=
ystem-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, Inter, Segoe UI, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sa=
ns-serif, Apple Color Emoji, Segoe UI Emoji, Segoe UI Symbol;font-size: 13p=
x;color: unset;list-style: none;text-decoration: unset;margin: 0;"><div cla=
ss=3D"pencraft pc-reset align-right-VJbKw5 size-12-mmZ61m reset-IxiVJZ" sty=
le=3D"list-style: none;color: unset;text-align: right;font-size: 12px;line-=
height: 16px;text-decoration: unset;margin: 0;"><span class=3D"pencraft pc-=
reset reset-IxiVJZ" translated=3D"" style=3D"list-style: none;color: unset;=
text-decoration: unset;margin: 0;">Forwarded this email? <a class=3D"pencra=
ft pc-reset decoration-underline-ClTkYc reset-IxiVJZ" href=3D"https://subst=
ack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9vbnRoZXBlbi5zdWJzdGFjay5jb20vc3Vic2Ny=
aWJlP3V0bV9zb3VyY2U9ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPWVtYWlsLXN1YnNjcmliZSZyPTRpd29=
lNiZuZXh0PWh0dHBzJTNBJTJGJTJGb250aGVwZW4uc3Vic3RhY2suY29tJTJGcCUyRndoYXQtbG=
lsbHlzLWVhcm5pbmdzLWNhbGwtanVzdC1yZXZlYWxlZCIsInAiOjE5NjAxODUyNywicyI6NDgwO=
Dk5MywiZiI6dHJ1ZSwidSI6MjczNjIyMzk4LCJpYXQiOjE3Nzc1NjkwMDYsImV4cCI6MjA5MzE0=
NTAwNiwiaXNzIjoicHViLTAiLCJzdWIiOiJsaW5rLXJlZGlyZWN0In0.DUoMDwRW5g-1JdIYjTz=
f332C2cUbEsQBcKafgAy-U_c?" style=3D"list-style: none;color: unset;text-deco=
ration: unset;margin: 0;-webkit-text-decoration-line: underline;text-decora=
tion-line: underline;">Subscribe here</a> for more</span></div></span></td>=
</tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div class=3D"post typograph=
y" dir=3D"auto" style=3D"--image-offset-margin: -120px;padding: 32px 0 0 0;=
font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;"><div class=3D"post-header" role=3D"regi=
on" aria-label=3D"Post header" style=3D"font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;"=
><h1 class=3D"post-title published title-X77sOw" dir=3D"auto" style=3D"dire=
ction: auto;text-align: start;unicode-bidi: isolate;color: rgb(54,55,55);fo=
nt-family: 'SF Pro Display', -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, =
'Inter', 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emo=
ji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol';font-weight: 900;-webkit-font-smoo=
thing: antialiased;-moz-osx-font-smoothing: antialiased;-webkit-appearance:=
 optimizelegibility;-moz-appearance: optimizelegibility;appearance: optimiz=
elegibility;margin: 0;line-height: 36px;font-size: 32px;"><a href=3D"https:=
//substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=3D4808993&post_id=3D196018527&u=
tm_source=3Dpost-email-title&utm_campaign=3Demail-post-title&isFreemail=3Dt=
rue&r=3D4iwoe6&token=3DeyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoyNzM2MjIzOTgsInBvc3RfaWQiOjE5NjAxODUy=
NywiaWF0IjoxNzc3NTY5MDA2LCJleHAiOjE3ODAxNjEwMDYsImlzcyI6InB1Yi00ODA4OTkzIiw=
ic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.XZTL8yoG1lUzAcXDLCjNDyANd4_gUmeHhlAtIPS-g8Q" =
style=3D"color: rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration: none;">What Lilly&#8217;s Ea=
rnings Call Just Revealed About the Future of Obesity Treatment</a></h1><h3=
 class=3D"subtitle subtitle-HEEcLo" dir=3D"auto" style=3D"direction: auto;t=
ext-align: start;unicode-bidi: isolate;font-family: 'SF Pro Display',-apple=
-system-headline,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Robo=
to,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe U=
I Symbol';font-weight: normal;-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;-moz-osx-=
font-smoothing: antialiased;-webkit-appearance: optimizelegibility;-moz-app=
earance: optimizelegibility;appearance: optimizelegibility;margin: 4px 0 0;=
color: #777777;line-height: 24px;font-size: 18px;margin-top: 12px;">The Sys=
tem Isn&#8217;t Expanding Obesity Treatment. Patient demand is.</h3><table =
class=3D"post-meta" role=3D"presentation" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cells=
pacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" style=3D"margin: 1em 0;height: 20px;align-it=
ems: center;"><tbody><tr><td><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" bo=
rder=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tbody><tr><td><table role=
=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=
=3D"0"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"vertical-align:middle;"><div class=3D"pencra=
ft pc-reset color-primary-zABazT line-height-20-t4M0El font-meta-MWBumP siz=
e-11-NuY2Zx weight-medium-fw81nC transform-uppercase-yKDgcq reset-IxiVJZ me=
ta-EgzBVA custom-css-email-post-author" style=3D"list-style: none;font-size=
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: 0;font-family: 'SF Compact',-apple-system,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMa=
cSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji=
','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol';font-weight: 500;text-transform: upper=
case;letter-spacing: .2px;"><a class=3D"pencraft pc-reset color-primary-zAB=
azT line-height-20-t4M0El font-meta-MWBumP size-11-NuY2Zx weight-medium-fw8=
1nC transform-uppercase-yKDgcq reset-IxiVJZ meta-EgzBVA" style=3D"list-styl=
e: none;color: rgb(54,55,55);margin: 0;font-size: 11px;line-height: 20px;fo=
nt-family: 'SF Compact',-apple-system,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSyste=
mFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Seg=
oe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol';font-weight: 500;text-transform: uppercase;l=
etter-spacing: .2px;text-decoration: none" href=3D"https://substack.com/@on=
thepen">On The Pen GLP-1 News</a></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr>=
<tr><td><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacin=
g=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"vertical-align:middle;"><=
div class=3D"pencraft pc-reset color-secondary-ls1g8s line-height-20-t4M0El=
 font-meta-MWBumP size-11-NuY2Zx weight-medium-fw81nC transform-uppercase-y=
KDgcq reset-IxiVJZ meta-EgzBVA" style=3D"list-style: none;font-size: 11px;l=
ine-height: 20px;text-decoration: unset;color: rgb(119,119,119);margin: 0;f=
ont-family: 'SF Compact',-apple-system,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSyst=
emFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Se=
goe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol';font-weight: 500;text-transform: uppercase;=
letter-spacing: .2px;"><time datetime=3D"2026-04-30T17:08:23.178Z">Apr 30</=
time></div></td><td width=3D"4" style=3D"min-width:4px;"></td><td style=3D"=
vertical-align:middle;"><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" border=
=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"vertical=
-align:middle;"><div class=3D"pencraft pc-reset color-secondary-ls1g8s line=
-height-20-t4M0El font-meta-MWBumP size-11-NuY2Zx weight-medium-fw81nC tran=
sform-uppercase-yKDgcq reset-IxiVJZ meta-EgzBVA" style=3D"list-style: none;=
font-size: 11px;line-height: 20px;text-decoration: unset;color: rgb(119,119=
,119);margin: 0;font-family: 'SF Compact',-apple-system,system-ui,-apple-sy=
stem,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple=
 Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol';font-weight: 500;text-tran=
sform: uppercase;letter-spacing: .2px;">&#8729;</div></td><td width=3D"4" s=
tyle=3D"min-width:4px;"></td><td style=3D"vertical-align:middle;"><div clas=
s=3D"pencraft pc-reset color-paid-LmY0EP line-height-20-t4M0El font-meta-MW=
BumP size-11-NuY2Zx weight-medium-fw81nC transform-uppercase-yKDgcq reset-I=
xiVJZ meta-EgzBVA" translated=3D"" style=3D"list-style: none;font-size: 11p=
x;line-height: 20px;text-decoration: unset;color: rgb(94,73,217);margin: 0;=
font-family: 'SF Compact',-apple-system,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSys=
temFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','S=
egoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol';font-weight: 500;text-transform: uppercase=
;letter-spacing: .2px;">Preview</div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></=
tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td><td align=3D"right"><table rol=
e=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpaddin=
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sp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div></div><div class=3D"post typography" dir=
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ize: 16px;line-height: 26px;"><div class=3D"body markup" dir=3D"auto" style=
=3D"text-align: initial;font-size: 16px;line-height: 26px;width: 100%;word-=
break: break-word;margin-bottom: 16px;font-family: 'SF Pro Display', -apple=
-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Inter', 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvet=
ica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Sy=
mbol';font-weight: 400;"><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55=
);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;margin-top: 0;"></p><div style=3D"font-=
size: 16px;line-height: 26px;"><hr style=3D"margin: 32px 0;padding: 0;heigh=
t: 1px;background: rgb(0,0,0,.1);border: none;"></div><p style=3D"margin: 0=
 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55);line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;">There wa=
s a moment in this call for me where all of the incredibly impressive numbe=
rs stopped meaning much to me, and the structure underneath them started to=
 matter a lot more. </p><p style=3D"margin: 0 0 20px 0;color: rgb(54,55,55)=
;line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;margin-bottom: 0;">Lilly reported $12.8 =
billion in combined revenue for Mounjaro and Zepbound, with prescriptions i=
n the obesity market up more than 80%. What the slides add is just how domi=
nant that position has become. Lilly now holds about 60% share of the U.S. =
incretin market, with the overall market itself still growing at roughly 30=
%. That means they are not just participating in growth. They are capturing=
 most of it, despite the stellar launch of Novo&#8217;s Wegovy Pill...</p><=
/div></div><div class=3D"paywall paywall-white-background" data-testid=3D"p=
aywall" data-component-name=3D"Paywall" role=3D"region" aria-label=3D"Paywa=
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x;cursor: default;-webkit-user-select: none;-moz-user-select: none;-ms-user=
-select: none;user-select: none;line-height: 26px;font-size: 16px;padding: =
32px 24px 16px 24px;background: rgb(255,255,255);color: rgb(54,55,55);borde=
r-top: solid 2px #f34dc9;margin-top: 6px;"><div class=3D"pencraft pc-displa=
y-flex pc-width-64 pc-height-64 pc-justifyContent-center pc-alignItems-cent=
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